As many people are likely to move to Bulgaria as leave it in the next two decades, according to a cautiously optimistic 2018 migration report from Colliers International. Titled “Turning the Tide,” the study suggests incoming migrants may even overtake leavers in numbers. Whether the tide can be turned will largely depend on how proactive the government and business are in encouraging Bulgarians to return and attracting qualified labor from neighboring countries.
Almost two out of every ten Bulgarians reside outside the country, according to data for 2016. Preferred destinations for these individuals include Turkey, home to a third of Bulgarian citizens, and Western Europe (57 percent), with about 5 percent of Bulgarian expats living in the United States. Germany, Spain, and the UK are the West European countries hosting the largest number of Bulgarian emigrants. Although by all accounts Bulgarians continue to leave in large numbers, the country has also seen an uptick in the number of returnees.
Despite considerable emigration, the main cause of Bulgaria’s demographic problem is the dramatic fall in the country’s birth rate in the 1980s and 1990s. From a peak of nine million in the mid-1980s, the country’s population slumped to just over seven million in 2016, a figure including residents and those living outside Bulgaria.
Demographic pressures notwithstanding, the Bulgarian labor force has remained steady over the past sixteen years, allowing for healthy economic growth and a tripling of GDP since 2000. The reason is the considerable increase of the working population relative to the country’s total population. Strong investment, service sector growth, higher wages, a more educated workforce, migration to the cities, flexible employment opportunities, and support for working mothers account for the growth of the economically active population.
The Bulgarian economy will benefit from continuing expansion in the IT sector and a somewhat improved fertility rate. The Colliers analysis also projects considerable economic gains if the country manages to make itself more appealing to non-EU immigrants. As yet, however, there are no government programs to attract either Bulgarians or non-Bulgarians to the country.
“Turning the Tide” was prepared by Colliers International’s Mark Robinson for the 12th annual meeting between business and government representatives in 2018, organized by Capital Weekly.
